A study by Deloitte for ACIEP (Spanish Association of Hydrocarbons Research, Exploration and Production Companies) entitled “Analysis of the impact of hydrocarbons exploration and production development in the Spanish economy” says that the development of exploration and production (E & P) of hydrocarbons in Spain would account for over 4 % of GDP.
The development of exploration and production ( E & P) of hydrocarbons in Spain would have a significant impact on the national economy in terms of gross domestic product (GDP ) , employment generation and trade balance. The study shows very positive numbers for the Spanish economy in the three macroeconomic variables analyzed: GDP, employment and trade balance, and in all possible scenarios: low , medium and high.
According to Enrique Hernandez Bento, Undersecretary of the Ministry of Energy, Industry and Tourism, “Spain is obliged to invest in research and exploration of any energy source to reduce its heavy foreign dependence.”
260,000 jobs in the medium scenario
The impact of the development of E & P activity in terms of employment, would entail, for the medium scenario, the generation of direct and indirect jobs in excess of 260,000 people in the year with the greatest impact, which represents approximately 1.6 % of total national employment of reference.
This figure would reach in the high scenario 755,000 jobs (4.7% of total national employment of reference) while under the low scenario the impact would be of some 81,000 jobs (0.5 % of national employment) .
Contribution to GDP of 4%
In terms of contribution to GDP, in the medium scenario, the E & P activity in Spain would reach 44,000 million euro in the year with the greatest impact, equivalent to 4.3 % of current GDP, surpassing other activities such as transportation or the primary sector. Regarding the cumulative gross added value over the study’s time horizon (2014 – 2065), it would exceed one trillion euro, an amount equivalent to the current Spain’s GDP.
The contribution to GDP is mainly due to the direct effect associated with the development of the E & P sector itself, accounting for over 80 % of the total contribution. The remaining 20 % is distributed among other industries (metal manufacturing, machinery rental, etc…)
Net contribution to the trade balance
In terms of trade balance, in relation to the trading of natural gas, the production of prospective resources defined in the medium scenario would achieve an exporting net balance for a period of over 20 years. Meanwhile, the impact associated with oil production would be more moderate: it would reduce domestic imports of such resource by up to 20 % of consumption.
Methodology for the calculation
Deloitte analysis sets as a starting point the beginning of the activity now and a period of 24 years for the completion of the exploration of resources. It sets an estimate of prospective resources in a base scenario valued at 2,000 million barrels of oil equivalent and 2,500 BCM (billion cubic meters of natural gas). This estimate is contained in the report “Preliminary Assessment of the prospective resources of conventional and unconventional hydrocarbons in Spain” prepared by Gessal for ACIEP in March 2013 .
Current gas surveys
The opposition from environmentalists and citizens’ movements stem from the potential environmental consequences of fracking, as in the case of Cantabria, or from the controversial methane gas exploration in the Costa del Sol, such as the Castor Project in Castellon or the proposals on the islands of Ibiza and the Canary Islands.